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11 of the 12

There are 12 Cylon models. Seven of them we have known about for some time: Number Six (Caprica), Number Eight (Sharon/Boomer), Number Three (D'anna Biers), Number Five (Aaron Doral), Leoben, Simon and Cavil.

A season 3 revelation was that these so-called substantial seven do not know who the final five models are, other than Number Three who was put into storage immediately after discovering their identity. Quite why the substantial seven don't know the identity of the final five is something we can expect to be revealed in season 4.

The final episode of season 3 (Crossroads Part 2) reveals Saul Tigh, Chief Tyrol, Samuel Anders and Tory Foster to be four of the final five Cylons. The final slot looks certain to be filled by a major character - Ronald D. Moore has said as much, and the story deserves nothing less than a huge shock - but which of the likely suspects it will turn out to be is far from clear.

One of the biggest clues comes from Number Three who exclaims You... forgive me... I had no idea when gazing upon the face of the last of the final five. Many have speculated this Cylon was Saul Tigh, and the apology was for popping his eye out during captivity. I'm not so sure: as far as the audience has seen, Number Three has not interacted with Tigh a great deal, so it's a bit of stretch to presume seeing Tigh would cause her reaction. Mainly, though, I'd like to believe the writers wouldn't waste (so to speak) Number Three's surprise on Tigh.

Discounting Tigh, and the others revealed as Cylons, leaves us with a handful of characters to take the place of the final Cylon.

The Obvious Candidates

Gaius Baltar

Baltar has always been under suspicion, mainly down to his waking visions of Number Six. The only other character who shares similar waking visions is a Cylon (Caprica Six and her Baltar). This has yet to be explained.

Furthermore, various sub-plots throughout the story refer to Baltar and his destiny - more so than with any other character. According to both his Number Six and the Cylon Baseship hybrid, Baltar is the chosen one.

Finally, Baltar is the only major character to have openly questioned whether or not he is a Cylon. He has resolved that he is not a Cylon, but that of course does not eliminate him. Indeed, if I were one of the writers, that's how I'd try and shift suspicion away from Baltar.

Likelihood of Baltar being the final Cylon:

Kara Thrace (Starbuck)

Starbuck and her destiny has been a running theme throughout the series. The Leoben model certainly seems to think she's special, although quite in what manner he believes her to be special has never been explained.

The most telling aspect of Starbuck's destiny are the patterns she painted (as far back as childhood) that match markings seen in holy books, along with an ancient structure supposedly built by the 13th tribe.

Starbuck disappeared towards the end of season 3, only to reappear at the end of the last episode. She claims to have been to Earth and says she will show the fleet how to get there.

Neither Starbuck's disappearance, nor her prophetic doodles, are damning evidence of her being a Cylon. But what precisely happened to Starbuck, and what her role in the bigger picture is, will be a revelation in one way or another.

Likelihood of Starbuck being the final Cylon:

Laura Roslin

Roslin has always had visions of one sort or another, and while they were put down to her dabbling with hallucinogenic drugs, the coincidences continue to mount up. Notably she once had a vision of 12 serpents on her podium during a speech, which happens to tie in with 12 models of Cylon.

More recently Roslin has been sharing dreams with Cylons Caprica Six and Sharon, in which she is trying to protect the half-human half-Cylon child, Hera.

Having said that, Laura Roslin is the only of the three obvious candidates we can be sure was on Galactica at the same time the other four of the final five heard the music that drew them together. If she isn't a Cylon, quite why she did not hear the music will need explaining.

Likelihood of Roslin being the final Cylon:

Remaining Major Players

William Adama

Admiral Adama is probably the least spiritual of the potential suspects - he certainly has not experienced the same kind of mystical visions or experiences that Baltar, Roslin or Starbuck endure. Bill Adama also has well a documented history, going back at least as far as Tigh's 40 years. While that is no barrier to being the final Cylon, Adama does have a son, Lee, which will take some juggling to get around.

Previously, Adama was identified as a Cylon by one of the Leoben models, however we've since learned that Leoben wouldn't have known Adama was one of the final five.

In spite of fewer obvious clues to his being a Cylon, Adama is the man at the top, and that in itself is enough to cast suspicion upon him.

Likelihood of Adama being the final Cylon:

Lee Adama (Apollo)

As with his father, should Apollo be the final Cylon the family connection will need explaining. Apollo is also lacking in the visions department compared to other suspects, though he has experienced one or two.

Apollo is the character I think I would be most surprised to see revealed as the final Cylon. Even so, Lee Adama is a major character and as such can't be ruled out.

Likelihood of Apollo being the final Cylon:

Rank Outsiders

People have speculated that Dualla or Gaeta could be the final Cylon, but I don't see it happening for either character. Neither seems likely to have caused Number Three's startled reaction when witnessing the last of the final five, but more pertinently neither seems big enough to fill the boots of being the final Cylon.

Looking elsewhere we've got both Helo and Cally apparently out of the equation, due to contributing the human half of their respective hybrid offspring - Helo with Sharon, and Cally with Tyrol.

Likelihood the final Cylon is not Baltar, Starbuck, Roslin, Adama or Apollo:

The Final Cylon?

So who's my money on? I'd like to see Baltar revealed as the final Cylon, but I doubt Gaius will make the grade. If I had to pick a character I'd go with Roslin. Starbuck and Adama are a bit too obvious (if there can be such a thing) and I can't imagine the remaining characters (Apollo included) providing enough of a shock to be the final Cylon.

But what the hell do I know? I'm probably way off base on all counts, and I sincerely hope I am. Galactica's writers have pulled some twists and turns over the past 3 seasons and I fully expect that to continue in season 4.

So say we all.